Archives: insights

After our recent post about % fleet active/stored by region, NAVEO was asked about key aircraft models and whether narrowbodies are indeed showing higher levels of activity compared to widebodies, etc., and, whether cargo and regional aircraft were holding up well?

Overall, (passenger & cargo) 60% of the fleet is now in-service, and 40% is parked/stored. Narrowbodies lead the way with 64% of aircraft in-service and 36% stored. 53% of widebodies, impacted by reduced long-haul travel demand, are in-service. 58% of RJs are in-service, as are 57% of turboprops.

But, the devil is in the detail. Aircraft activity depends upon their size, age, operating costs, maintenance requirements, region, operator business model, etc.

In the chart below, you can see that 73% of 737NGs are in-service, as are 75% of A320neos. Only 5% of A380s, 41% of A330s, and 46% of 777-200/300s are active.

Of course, even if the aircraft are active, utilization is down (as are load-factors), and recovery is sluggish.

Regarding Cargo, 79% of cargo aircraft are active. Of this, 88% of cargo widebodies are active, and only 12% are stored. But, as a % of the fleet dedicated freighters are less than 10%, so for MRO, it’s the passenger fleet that is key to watch.

Let’s see how many aircraft in mid-August 2020 are currently in-service, parked/stored, average age, and how the % in-service/parked varies by region. Overall, ~60% of the fleet is in-service and the average age (active and parked) is ~13.8 years old.

Regionally, China leads the way with ~80% of its fleet in-service. North America has ~65% in-service, Europe ~55%. Latin America has only ~45% in-service.

In the chart below you can see that strong deliveries in the past from emerging growth economies result in a younger fleet. Many of these aircraft in growth economies are under warranty or haven’t had their first engine shop visits or heavy maintenance events. For instance, the average age of the Chinese fleet is just seven years.

The North American fleet averages ~17.7 years of age. Hence, we’ve been in a fleet-renewal phase in North America retiring aging passenger aircraft such as MD80s, 757s, 767s, and replacing them with A320Neos, 737 MAXs, A220s, 787s, and A350s.

For those that love cargo, the data below includes cargo aircraft. But, there are ~2,300 dedicated cargo aircraft with an average age of 26.3 years. If we only look at the passenger fleet (excluding cargo), the average age falls to ~12.7 years.